A military intervention in Venezuela: Why Abkhazia matters?
Most Venezuelans do not even know that Abkhazia exists. This small place in Eurasia has historically had great geopolitical importance. Sokhumi (Abkhazia’s capital city) lies on the site of the ancient Greek colony of Dioscurias on the Black Sea coast. Since ancient times, the ethnic and cultural makeup of the Abkhazia has been very rich and complex, mainly because of the mountainous terrain and the isolation that encouraged the development of dozens of languages and distinct traditions.
…And the truth is that recognizing Abkhazia as being part of Georgia, may be one of the main topics to be discussed if further negotiations are held, in order to solve the Venezuelan crisis. It is most likely that the Russians will not help Venezuela at all if the United States intervenes. Venezuela can be exchanged for other geopolitical gems.
History of Abkhazia
Let’s take a brief look at Abkhazia’s history. Georgia and Abkhazia were annexed by the Russian Empire in the 19th century. Before the Russian Revolution in 1917, both Abkhazia and Georgia were part of the Russian Empire. In the first decades of the twentieth century, both republics were divided and reunified several times.
In 1918, Georgia, became part of the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic, and Abkhazia declared independence as a Democratic Republic of Georgia (DRG). In 1921, after the military intervention of the Red Army, the Socialist Republic of Abkhazia was formed as an independent Soviet republic. In 1931, Abkhazia formally joined the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic, and since then the Abkhazian territory has undergone Georgianization. Not all were satisfied with the Georgian-Abkhazian reunification process.
To understand the status of Abkhazia and its crisis is very complicated. The nature of the problem of Abkhazia is not only political and military-strategic, but also ethnic. Even though Abkhazia has historically been a multi-ethnic territory, it was for a long time ruled by ethnic Abkhazians (around 30% of the population before 1931), which defended their socio-cultural identity and promoted the use of Abkhazian language. Throughout the Soviet era, the Abkhaz constantly struggled for their sovereignty. The most significant protests took place in 1931, 1957, 1967, 1978 and 1989. In 1978, the Abkhaz intelligentsia signed the “Abkhazian letter”, in which they defended the distinctness of Abkhaz people and protested against the Georgianization of Abkhazia. The 87-page document was secretly sent to Moscow.
From the late 1980s, tensions between Abkhazians and Georgians began to increase, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In August 1992, the war in Abkhazia began. This war has been considered one of the bloodiest conflicts in recent years. As a result of this war, Abkhazia become a de facto state. In 1998, another war occurred in Abkhazia, and Georgia lost again. According to Eduard Shevardnadze, the army was not prepared to defend and reclaim Abkhazia as a part of Georgia.
Abkhazia and Venezuela
Why does Abkhazia matter to Venezuela? The answer lies somewhere in the middle of the geopolitical ambitions of Russia, and the United States, both considered first-grade military powers who have the most powerful armies in the world. If further international negotiations are held in order to solve the Venezuelan crisis, it is very likely that Abkhazia will be one of the main topics of discussion. Indeed, it already is. Due to the Venezuelan recognition of Abkhazia, the Maduro administration will have the almost unconditional support of the Russian Federation, which greatly values it. Tied to the US foreign policy, the Venezuelan opposition has no choice, but to recognize Abkhazia as part of Georgia. Abkhazia has been one of the most relevant “conquests” of the Putin administration, and the Kremlin has invested a lot of money there. Doug Bandow, contributor of The American Conservative, has stated that for the United States, Venezuela presents an opportunity to pursue peace with Russia.
Even though Russia is no longer a superpower and its economy is just about the size of Florida-New York, Putin has managed to rebuild the Russian military. The United States understands very well that Russia does not have the same capacity that the Soviet Union once had, but it is well known that Russia has enormous potential. One of the goals of Russia’s military modernization program is the completion of three intercontinental ballistic missile development programs: the RS-26 Rubezh (a development of the Yars-M), RS-28 Sarmat and the rail-based Bagruzin by 2020. And in December 2018, it was announced that the Russian military was getting a big upgrade in 2019: the 2S42 Lotos 120mm self-propelled artillery gun and the Zavet-D artillery fire control, which will both enter final state trials. According to Mark Episkopos (National Interest Org), Russia has steadily continued to modernize and expand its artillery line-up. “Penicillin”, named after the the drug that revolutionized medicine, and the Drok 82mm, will also undergo testing in 2019.
Venezuela possesses a very strategic location, facing the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Even the Nazi regime had therefore very ambitious projects in Venezuela. It also holds the largest oil reserves in the world, and the largest conventional reserves of oil in the Western hemisphere. The country has a great geopolitical and strategic relevance. New evidence indicates that Venezuela also possesses the world’s second largest gold reserves, with 32 certified fields, allowing the government to advance its Gold Plan focused on the development of the Orinoco Mining Arc in 2019, generating an income on the order of five billion dollars. The United States, China, Russia, Iran, India, and many others foreign powers, have their interests in Venezuela, even considered the gate of South America. Neither Cuba or Belarus recognize Abkhazia, but Venezuela does. Venezuela is a strategic partner of Abkhazia, which even has an embassy in Caracas, located in the central Sabana Grande area.
Being one of the few countries in the world that recognizes its independence, Venezuela has given support to Russian geopolitical interests in Abkhazia. Since 2009, both states established diplomatic relations. In 2010, bilateral relations were established at the level of embassies. In Venezuela, Abkhazia had their first diplomatic mission in the Americas. Only the following countries have recognized Abkhazia as an autonomous republic: the Russian Federation, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru and Syria. Most countries consider Abkhazia to be part of Georgia. In the Western world, Abkhazia is not even considered a country. It is considered a Georgian territory with no legitimate state and a de facto government. Most of the member countries of the United Nations do not recognize Abkhazia as an independent State.
Abkhazia is part of the Caucasus, a region that has historically been extremely important for Russia. Abkhazia juts out from Georgia along the eastern shore of the Black Sea and the western edge of the Caucasus. And even more, it borders on Sochi, the Russian summer paradise where the recent winter Olympics were held. The economic stability of Abkhazia depends on Russia. About half of Abkhazia’s de facto state budget is financed with aid money from Russia. Although Russia regards Abkhazia as an autonomous republic, some analysts believe that for all practical purposes, Abkhazia is technically a part of Russia.
Following the events in Abkhazia, not only the Georgians, but also the Americans, have figured out that Russia is still eager to defend its area of influence. The Russian tolerance has limits. According to the Associated Press, Russia took a bunch of US marine corp humvees as war trophies and never gave them back. The Russians were afraid that Georgia may have been considering the deployment of a military base for the United States.
Russia and the United States must negotiate and normalize their diplomatic relations. Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, has claimed that Donald Trump is correct to say that US-Russian relations are in a bad place and that it would be better if they could be improved. Bandow has stated: “Washington and Brussels should indicate that NATO expansion is over. No invitations will be extended to Georgia and Ukraine. No new bases will be established and no new troops will be deployed in the east. In return, Moscow will end election meddling in America and Europe and military meddling in Ukraine. When Russia’s involvement ceases, economic sanctions will be lifted”. If the United States stops intervening in the Russian area of influence, it would be more likely that the Kremlin could negotiate a political transition in Venezuela.
A military intervention in Venezuela
Maintaining stability in Abkhazia is one of the priorities of the Kremlin. Venezuela guarantees the geopolitical interests of Russia in the Caucasus region and the nearby Black Sea area. Venezuela is not only a very strategic territory in America, but also its role in Eurasia is very significant. After Russia and Syria, Venezuela is the only key actor that recognizes the independence of Abkhazia. Diplomatically, Venezuela was the first ally of Abkhazia in America. Not even Cuba recognized Abkhazia.
It is well known regime change in Venezuela may encourage a Georgian reunification, which today is considered the most pro-Western and pro-American country of the former Soviet bloc. It is then no surprise that Georgia was one of the first countries to recognize Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Gustavo Tarre Briceño, Venezuelan ambassador to the UN (appointed by Juan Guaido), told Georgia Today that Venezuela will no longer recognize Abkhazia as an independent country, if Maduro is finally deposed from power.
Let’s admit that the only world superpower is the United States. It is not very likely that Russia and China will confront the United States for Venezuela, but neither is it impossible. After the United States, Russia and China are the worl’s only great military powers. In a war, the Russian military may have some advantages over NATO and the United States military. We also have to take into account that Syria has proved out to have been a valuable learning experience for the Russian military. The Syrian provided the Russians with a great deal of experience and opportunities for innovation, according to The National Interest’s staff.
The risks of a military intervention in Venezuela can far outweigh the benefits, if China and Russia oppose it. Abkhazia and Crimea are a good opportunity to make peace with Russia. In return, the United States may recover Venezuela as one of its strategic partners. It appears that negotiation may be the best solution here. Are we really sure that China and Russia will not militarily support Venezuela in case of military intervention, led by the United States?
In an article published in Open Democracy, Juan Francisco Lobo states that: “In terms of proportionality, the costs of intervening militarily in a country that is an ally of China without the latter’s consent could prove catastrophic in the long-term, and largely exceed the benefits that could be reaped. (…) At the end of the day, the solution to the crisis in Venezuela lies with China. Just as Russia could — but apparently won’t — exert the necessary pressure for the Assad regime to stop the bloodshed in Syria, the key to ending the humanitarian and political crisis in Venezuela is held by the Chinese.”
However, Lobo does not take into account that the United States is China’s biggest source of trade incomes and the Chinese do not have large military infrastructure in the nearby area of Venezuela. At this time (check out “The US-China Trade War: A Timeline”), it is very unlikely that China is looking to seek problems with the United States. The United States has military bases in Puerto Rico, Aruba, Curazao and El Salvador. In Colombia, The United States has its military personnel in Colombian military bases, even though these are not formally US military bases — practically –. As far as we know, China has no military bases in the Caribbean area.
Let’s not forget that a negative outcome of a military intervention in Venezuela may not only have a high cost in human lives and infrastructure, but could also see the resurfation and repowering of the Latin American left, which today is in a weakened state. What will be the consequences for the rest of Latin America, if the military intervention of Venezuela goes wrong? The Latin American governments understand that a military intervention in Venezuela will constitute a diplomatic precedent, with unpredictable consequences for all of them in the future. Due to its particular conditions, military intervention in Venezuela would be an unprecedented fact. The situation of Panama in 1989, and that of Venezuela in 2019, are very different.
Because of Russia, Abkhazia matters in Venezuela… and it matters quite a lot.
Author: Vicente Quintero @vicenquintero
Vicente Quintero has a degree in Liberal Studies from the Metropolitan University of Caracas, focused on politics. Quintero has worked as interpreter-translator and political advisor for journalists and foreign businessmen in Venezuela. Quintero is an analyst at the International Anti-Crisis Center in St. Petersburg. Quintero is a columnist for El Nacional Web (Venezuela), Cultura Colectiva (Mexico), The Global World (Spain) and WTC Radio (Venezuela). In 2018, he had the opportunity to work as artist for the Alejandro Otero National Museum. Quintero speaks four languages: Spanish, English, Russian and German. Quintero has given interviews for the BBC, Voice of America, Россия 24, Izvestia, WTC Venezuela and other national and international media. Currently he is pursuing a postgraduate degree in Government and Public Policy.
